2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season : CSU Extended Forecast

Last week, Colorado State University (CSU) released their initial forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The CSU forecast, based on 40 years of past data from four separate models, is calling for activity above the 1991-2020 average during the 2025 season. 

What Does That Mean? 

Well, due to the current conditions, this initial extended-range forecast estimates that the 2025 season will have 17 named storms, and 4 major hurricanes (Cat 3+). The probability of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean or U.S is above average, and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) – which is used to measure a named storm’s potential to cause wind damage – is expected to be about 125% of the long-term average.

Why Issue Extended-Range Forecasts for Hurricane Activity?

It is impossible to predict, precisely, this season’s hurricane activity this early in the year. However, it is also useful to examine the current conditions in the Atlantic Basin and the global system to estimate the impact of the coming hurricane seasons. Extended forecasts help us to begin preparing for the 2025 Hurricane Season, and to anticipate what the next few months may hold. The April forecast considers conditions through August 2025, and subsequent forecasts (June 11, July 9, and August 6) will each take the projections further into the season. 

Key Takeaways

Most importantly, it only takes one storm to have a major impact, and these forecasts do not predict where particular storms will make landfall. It is best to begin preparations for hurricane season now, no matter what the forecast. It is also important to remember to pay attention to short term forecasts during the hurricane season, as the behavior and impacts of tropical cyclones is evolving. As sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content continue to warm in the next several months, rapid intensification will be a significant concern once again this season. Furthermore, many storms over the past several years have created major rain and flooding events despite being designated “only” a Category 1 hurricane or a Tropical Storm. The speed at which a system is moving and the amount of rainfall it is capable of producing is incredibly important. Rely on the National Weather Service San Juan Office , the National Hurricane Center, and VITEMA for the most up to date information about incoming weather.